PowerUP RAR8848 Pilot

PowerUP plans, Interlock guards. The October 2026 Malibu shutoff, replayed on the 456 homes behind SCE switch RAR8848 on Cuthbert, with our free Base batteries. Every order, PowerUP's too, passes Interlock first.

Thu Oct 15, 4:00 PM
Hold
PowerUP's ladder

Six steps, gentle before firm, each spent only when the risk and the need justify it. Every step is a button that jumps the replay to the first full hour after its event. The last step hands the decision to a person.

    Battery homes
      Circuits (click)
      Malibu and the fire
      • Other Malibu circuits, faint
      • 66 kV into Latigo (CEC)
      • Bryson Fire perimeter (NIFS)
      N up. N up. Lines from SCE GIS, coast approximate#10530; shows Malibu and the fire. Lines from SCE GIS
      PowerUP this hour
      Interlock
      Real event

      The pilot business: free Base batteries behind RAR8848

      Our company buys Base Core batteries and places them free in homes that volunteer to share with neighbors. On ordinary days the fleet trades; before a shutoff it holds full under PowerUP's ladder above; when SCE opens RAR8848, the 456 homes behind it run as one island on the batteries and rooftop solar, with one battery certified to form the grid. Homes without a battery subscribe for emergency power at $9.99 a month (Medical Baseline homes are covered free). In a shutoff every kWh on the island costs twice SCE's top residential TOU price, billed by SCE; batteries and solar roofs that sell into the island are paid for every kWh. The stretch is last in its series (breaker, then RCS0036, then RAR8848), sits on the coastal flats 9 km from the Bryson burn, and was opened alone only once while the Cuthbert breaker cut the whole circuit 15 times, so these homes are mostly collateral.

      Fleet
      Free Base batteries we place, all at once: 160
      Ordinary days, per battery per year
      Shutoff power: who pays and who earns (readiness rule picked on the right)
      Change the money assumptions
      Readiness rules: what holding full costs, and who stays on (pick a row)

      Holding costs the trading a battery gives up on those days (real CAISO day-ahead values for SCE, Oct to Dec 2025, $0.91 a day). SCE notified 3.3 customers for every one it cut in its Jan 20 2025 event, so every rule pays for false alarms too. Lead times are real, from the Bryson Fire: first Santa Ana signal 6.5 days ahead, SCE named Cuthbert 3 days ahead.

      The 16 real shutoffs that cut these homes, replayed on the island
      SCE line switches on this stretch (tap one to find it on the map)

      Real: RAR8848's 456 customers, Cuthbert's shutoff history 2019 to Jan 2025, Malibu's 7.1 home batteries (median 20 kWh) and 8.4 solar-only roofs per 100 homes, Medical Baseline 2.6% (SCE's Dec 2024 report on Maguire). Estimated: switch positions and where each home sits. Assumed: who joins (60% of battery owners, 90% of homes without a battery as $9.99 subscribers, every medical home), 27 kWh a day per roof, 8 kWh a day of critical load per receiving home, the installed cost, capacity price and event count.

      What exists, what PowerUP adds

      Sources and data notes

        Caveats
        • SCE publishes circuit load without units. The numbers fit amps per phase at 16 kV, so 1 unit is read as about 27.7 kW three-phase. That is an inference, shown as such.
        • Serra's load profile is near zero and unusable; the app uses Merlin's shape scaled by customers.
        • Tuna has no SCE line or customer count on record: 500 customers and a coastal band are assumed. Seaboard is drawn for context only.
        • The coast is hand-traced and approximate. Lines are SCE's, simplified to about 10 m.
        • Restoration has not happened. Times after Oct 17 20:00 are planned, not actual.
        • SCE does not publish Medical Baseline counts per circuit. The Medical Baseline homes here are demo homes placed by a seeded random draw.
        • Money uses real CAISO day-ahead prices for the SCE zone on the same dates in 2025 (wholesale value of one battery's best daily schedule, perfect foresight). A California home battery does not collect the wholesale price directly today, and no Malibu node publishes a price. The assumed TOU rates are the alternative in the drawer.
        • Base has no California fleet. This is a demo of what a dispatcher could do, not a record of what happened.